> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://polypoll.gitbook.io/polypoll-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://polypoll.gitbook.io/polypoll-docs/user-guide/understanding-odds.md).

# Understanding Odds

PolyPoll displays odds as probabilities.

## Binary markets

If a market shows:

* **YES 64%**
* **NO 36%**

that means the market currently prices the event as roughly a 64% chance.

In binary markets, the two prices always sum to 100%.

## Multi-choice markets

Each option has its own probability, and the whole set sums to 100%.

Example:

* Arizona 25%
* Duke 22%
* UConn 19%
* Other 34%

## Why odds move

Odds change when users trade.

* more buying on one side pushes that side up
* selling lowers exposure and can move the price back down

## Price, shares, and payout

Paper shares settle at:

* **1 point per winning share**

That means your outcome depends on:

1. how many shares you got
2. what average price you paid
3. whether the market resolves your way

## Opening odds

Creators can set the opening probability for binary markets.

That does not guarantee the market stays there. It only sets the starting point before traders move it.


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